Thermal

Here’s an interesting site: Long Bets

I’m going to attempt to summarise it, without totally watering it down, but it works something like this:

1. Somebody makes a prediction for the future on any topic they like, the only real stipulation being that it must be at least 2 years in the future, although it can be much more if you wish.
2. If somebody else (the challenger) decides the prediction is wrong, they will issue an argument stating why, and bet a sum of money. The predictor matches that bet.
3. Both sums of money are paid into a long term fund, set up by Long Bets, and both the predictor and the challenger nominates charities to be the recipient of any winnings.
4. The bet is played out, and the winning charity recieves the winnings plus interest.

It’s quite a novel idea in itself, and the bets are very wide ranging, from when alien contact might be made, to when Steve Jobs becomes President of the States, internet predicitons, to economics. Some bets finish shortly, others go to 2050 and beyond.

The arguments for and against the various predicitons are set-up online, and it makes for an absorbing read. A genuinely interesting website, unlike this one!

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This entry was posted on Sunday, February 4th, 2007 at 2:01 pm and is filed under Internet, Life. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.